Mongolia continues to experience the adverse effects of climate change, which poses significant risks for local communities. The country has experienced a 2.46'C degree increase in average air temperatures over the past 80 years, making it one of the countries most affected by climate change. The severity and frequency of natural disasters has doubled, and annual damage costs are estimated to be approximately 50-70 billion MNT (equivalent to $14 - 20 million). Mongolia is particularly vulnerable to dzuds which have a detrimental impact on the herder’s prosperity of life. Within the last 10 years, the country has experienced six dzuds.
A dzud is a slow-onset disaster, resulting in gradual livestock mortality over time due to a prolonged combination of malnutrition and cold stress. Due to loss of livestock and subsequent impact on livelihoods, compounded with inflation on fuel and food prices, herders migrate to urban areas, often falling into a cycle of poverty and socio-economic deprivation.
In the summer of 2023, around 60 per cent of the country, particularly the central and eastern regions, experienced favorable summer conditions and stable amount of hay and fodder growth. The remaining northern and eastern parts of the country experienced dryness and drought this summer. Unfortunately, ongoing frequent heavy snowfall and extreme weather poses significant dzud risks to vulnerable communities which leads to rapid action both from the Government of Mongolia and Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) in early action and response.
HCT members has been informed an occurrence of the potential dzud by the government organizations including State Emergency Commission, Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Light Industry (MOFALI), National Emergency Management Agency of Mongolia National Agency of Meteorology and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM) via HCT meetings since December 2023. On 12 January 2024, the UN Resident Coordinator received a letter from H.E. Amarsaikhan S., the Deputy Prime Minister of Mongolia, requesting joint cooperation between the Government and HCT in overcoming dzud and mitigating the impact to herder households.
On 12 January 2024, the State Emergency Commission of Mongolia (SEC) and the UN Resident Coordinator's Office (RCO) convened a joint meeting involving ambassadors, development partners, and members of the HCT to foster a shared understanding of the current dzud situation and the Government's response efforts.
The Dzud Early Action and Response Plan for 2023/2024 complements the Government of 'Mongolia's Dzud Anticipatory Action and Response Plan. This plan aims to deliver immediate and life-saving assistance to 33,400 people out of the 150,500 people in need identified by the HCT through a coordinated approach. I am particularly concerned that of these, around 33,400 are women, men, girls and boys who needs urgent humanitarian support and ensure their continuity of access to critical services.
Although dzud occurrences are common in Mongolia, this year's severity is concerning. The livelihoods of vulnerable herder households and their socio-economic situation are under threat. The worst is yet to come, the peak of livestock mortality will occur from February to April.
The Government, with the support of the HCT, is continuously monitoring the evolving situation and providing much needed humanitarian support for the people to prevent a major catastrophe. In the long term, UN agencies will collectively address the issue by partnering with the Government of Mongolia, development partners, and humanitarian organizations on shifting from a life-saving response to one of resilience under the humanitarian–development nexus.
The HCT expresses deep gratitude for the collaborative efforts of the international community in Mongolia, which significantly alleviated the hardships faced by affected communities. We commend the Government's proactive measures to ensure timely action to mitigate the impact of dzud, such as providing discounted hay and fodder to high-risk provinces, reducing livestock numbers, and delivering crucial services directly to herder households.
Nevertheless, a stronger sense of solidarity is imperative to help herders strengthen their resilience against the prevailing challenges. Despite their diligent preparedness actions, herders require our unwavering support to mitigate risks. Thus, I earnestly appeal for international assistance and the mobilization of additional resources to prevent further deterioration of humanitarian needs in Mongolia.
In unison with the entire humanitarian community, I implore your generous support for the people of Mongolia at the earliest possible juncture.
TAPAN MISHRA
United Nations Resident Coordinator in Mongolia
Situation Overview
Mongolia is increasingly grappling with the impacts of climate change, manifested in discernible shifts in weather patterns that underscore the escalation of this global phenomenon. The cyclical nature of the country's four distinct seasons has been significantly disrupted, particularly since 2015, leading to a rise in recurrent summer droughts and subsequent harsh winters. This poses an escalating threat to livestock-based livelihoods, the cornerstone of rural Mongolian life, creating a pressing need for humanitarian assistance to protect vulnerable herder households with limited coping strategies. Though the summer of 2023 was initially favorable with abundant rainfall, the months that followed saw the abrupt onset of a severe temperature drop, substantial snowfall in early November, and an unusually rapid temperature rise causing a snow thaw. Subsequently, an extended period of extreme cold, dipping below -40°C, persisted through the second half of December. These combined factors have made winter 2023-2024 particularly challenging for the region. As a result, herder communities in the country are now grappling with an exceptionally harsh winter characterized by icy conditions that completely obstruct livestock access to pastures.
The icy dzud condition has not been observed since 2010, when Mongolia faced a severe dzud disaster. That year, the country experienced the loss of about 10.3 million heads of livestock, equivalent to approximately 25 per cent of the 'country's livestock population. The catastrophe impacted 769,000 people, constituting 28 per cent of 'Mongolia's total population. According to the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, 220,000 herding households were affected, with 44,000 households losing their entire herds, and 164,000 losing more than half.
As of 20 December 2023, the Government of Mongolia reports that approximately 90 per cent of Mongolia's territory, including 21 provinces excluding Ulaanbaatar city, or 321 out of 339 soums (townships), are categorized as facing a high or extreme dzud risk. Moreover, 250 soums, excluding two districts of Ulaanbaatar city, covering 74 per cent of the nation, are already in dzud or near-dzud conditions. Within the dzud conditions, 47 soums in 14 provinces are under ice or icy conditions, while 135 soums in 17 provinces are under the white dzud conditions.
The alarming rapid temperature fluctuations and heavy snowfall in November 2023 served as a warning as winter conditions deteriorated. This early awareness enabled herders to proactively engage in commercial destocking while their livestock were still in good body condition.